Moonshot Meter: Quantum Computing Pure Plays

Quantum computing is one of the most hyped — and most misunderstood — frontiers in technology. The promise is massive: machines that can solve problems no classical supercomputer could ever touch, revolutionizing everything from drug discovery to cryptography.

But who gets there first — and who runs out of cash first? Let’s put three of the top pure-play quantum computing stocks on the Moonshot Meter: Rigetti (RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), and D-Wave (QBTS).

⚛ Rigetti Computing (RGTI)

Overview:
Rigetti builds superconducting quantum processors and a hybrid cloud platform that lets developers run quantum-classical workloads. The company has been struggling with execution and delays but is still pushing toward a 1,000+ qubit machine by 2026.

Moonshot Scores:

• Tech Breakthrough Potential: 8/10 – Strong IP and unique hybrid approach.
• Market Opportunity: 9/10 – Huge upside if they can deliver scalable qubits.
• Commercialization Timeline: 5/10 – Revenue is tiny today; profitability distant.
• Balance Sheet & Risk: 4/10 – Cash burn is high, runway is limited without dilution.
• X-Factor: 7/10 – Partnerships with DARPA and DoD give some validation.

Final Moonshot Score: 6.6/10
Verdict: ⚖️ Balanced Bet – High upside, but execution risk is huge.

⚡ IonQ (IONQ)

Overview:
IonQ uses trapped-ion technology, which offers higher qubit fidelity and scalability potential. They are building partnerships with AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, making them one of the most commercially visible quantum players.

Moonshot Scores:

• Tech Breakthrough Potential: 9/10 – Trapped-ion qubits are among the most stable.
• Market Opportunity: 9/10 – Strong enterprise adoption potential via cloud.
• Commercialization Timeline: 7/10 – Real customers are already using IonQ systems.
• Balance Sheet & Risk: 7/10 – Better-funded than most peers, less near-term dilution risk.
• X-Factor: 8/10 – Cloud partnerships put IonQ front and center with developers.

Final Moonshot Score: 8.0/10
Verdict: 🔥 High-Conviction Moonshot – One of the best-positioned public quantum stocks.

🌀 D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)

Overview:
D-Wave focuses on quantum annealing — a specialized form of quantum computing already being used for optimization problems. While some critics say it’s not “true” gate-based quantum computing, D-Wave has real customers today.

Moonshot Scores:

• Tech Breakthrough Potential: 7/10 – Unique approach but narrower use case.
• Market Opportunity: 8/10 – Optimization has real enterprise demand.
• Commercialization Timeline: 8/10 – Already generating revenue from enterprise clients.
• Balance Sheet & Risk: 4/10 – Cash reserves are thin; they need more funding.
• X-Factor: 6/10 – Longest-running commercial quantum provider, but may get leapfrogged.

Final Moonshot Score: 6.6/10
Verdict: ⚖️ Balanced Bet – Good revenue traction, but uncertain long-term positioning.

📝 Takeaway

Quantum computing is still early — think “internet in the 1990s” early — but the stakes are enormous. IonQ currently leads the pack among public companies, but Rigetti and D-Wave are worth watching for signs of technical and commercial progress.

Moonshot Meter Call:

• ✅ IonQ: High-Conviction Watch
• ⚖️ Rigetti & D-Wave: Speculative Holds – only for those with patience and risk tolerance.